Bangladesh’s stated foreign policy is ” Friendship towards all, malice towards none”. While this is a nice kumbaya statement it is hardly reflective of the realities of our external relations. If one were to describe as it is in practice now it would be obsequiousness towards all ( except Pakistan) but ” friendship” ( subservience) towards India. In many ways, Bangladesh has become a vassal state, a satrap of an increasingly aggressive and expansionist India, especially during the past seventeen years of the previous regime. The prevailing view amongst the Bangladeshi establishment seems to be that this is our “manifest destiny” given our geography of being surrounded on three sides by Indian territory. This view, however, is not guided by facts or based on deeper understanding of India-Bangladesh relationship as it has evolved now. In the emerging multipolar world Bangladeshi establishment needs to seriously revisit their assumptions and not play a weak hand when they In fact have a much stronger one.
China’s much vaunted and anticipated “One Belt One Road” summit has laid out a grand vision of connectivity and industrial development for the Eurasian super continent – ” World Island” and beyond, that will shape Geo- politics and economic relationships for decades to come. Notably absent from this summit was India. All her neighbors however enthusiastically participated. Even Bangladesh sent a delegation, reluctantly almost. Pakistan, Nepal, Srilanka, Myanmar, Thailand, Maldives and Bangladesh were represented, all but the last, at the Head of State level. So the notion that Bangladesh’s foreign policy will be driven by Washington and London as the sheriff and Delhi as the deputy sheriff has become dated to say the least. Regional connectivity through OBOR presents an opportunity to break free of traditional external relations frameworks. But this has to be done with diplomatic finesse and deft touch. Economically we are going to be more dependent on World Bank, IMF et al and the smorgasbord of Western “aid ” agencies thanks to the rampant corruption and mismanagement of the last regime. While FDI is still low due to infrastructure shortcomings, we can expect it will change primarily from these Eastern sources (Japan, China, Korea etc.). Western investment is unlikely to grow much in the coming years unless we can build a direct strategic/ security relationship with them. Our foreign policy and national security doctrine must reflect that. Prime imperative for us therefore is to play a pivotal role in OBOR and in the Bay of Bengal Industrial Belt initiative of Japan. In that light Japanese investment in Matarbari deep sea port is welcome but refusing Chinese investment at Sonadia deep sea port and Teesta Barrage development project at Indian insistence is not. We must have more and better deep sea ports than Myanmar because in the medium to long term they will be the competitor for us in attracting investment from China and Japan. Even the barely navigable Calcutta port wants to be part of Maritime Silk Road. Since we are gifted with three to four natural deep sea harbors, we should not squander the opportunity to build a viable blue ocean economy. Even if it entails being a ” pearl” in a string.
Bangladesh is lately being offered ” security co-operation” by her neighbor. It is important for the Bangladeshi security establishment to keep in mind that who is providing security to whom. Since 1971 Bangladesh has been a net security provider to India and the latter a net beneficiary. In return for restive borders, refusal to grant sanctuary to India’s North Eastern rebel groups (unlike Indian training and arming of CHT terrorists) we gets border killings. In return for offering significantly reduced risk of India having to fight a two/three front war that she is incapable of winning, we are being accused of “terrorism” and illegal migration (despite a barbed wire frontier). Our borders remain the bloodiest peacetime borders in terms of number of people killed, even more than India-Pakistan or the North Korea-South Korea border. This needs to change and will change. Our support for their territorial integrity cannot be unconditional but based on mutual acceptance of the same. Our support for their internal stability must be conditional upon their support for the same for us. Our citizens must be treated with respect and their human rights must be protected. They can’t be tortured and humiliated in life or in death. If such co-operation is not forthcoming our security co-operation can also be withheld. We must enhance our security co-operation with other large global powers to change our power dynamics.
Bangladesh is the largest source of foreign earnings for Indian business. Through highly positive trade deficit and massive yearly worker remittance (both legal and illegal) India earns almost 25 Billion USD from this market. Yet we see ever changing non-tariff barriers and absence of any meaningful investment in our country from India. This imbalance must be addressed in time, but much before that we must realize that access to our market is a great negotiating tool for us to leverage in securing agreements on common rivers. While public feeling in Bangladesh about India is mostly negative for all these frictions and historical issues, Indian business and establishment has never felt it in their pocket books. We must make them feel it. We must give access to our market and our wallets to those who provide us with the most benefit. As a state we must maximize our own interest in real politik terms. India must realize they can’t take this market for granted and they have competition. That alone will strengthen our hand significantly.
India is now a “Rimland state” in the grand chess board of Eurasia. She must either implement the alternative connectivity initiatives she is promoting or join OBOR to stay relevant. But given her paucity of resources relative to China and lack of deep engineering skills at the scale that is required, the later seems more practical. But whichever option they choose, given their relationship with Pakistan is unlikely to improve in the near future, the vector of their foreign policy will be eastward. India is following a classic ” Alfred Mahan” inspired blue ocean navy based maritime mercantile power strategy focused on the Indian Ocean and to a lesser extent South Pacific Ocean / South China Sea. Their primary focus will be Straits of Malacca ( backed by US Navy and Japan). The Chinese foresee this and have devised multiple strategies within OBOR ( CPEC, Kra Canal, Malaysian inter port trans-shipments, various joint projects with Indonesia etc.) to avoid this choke hold. That leaves India with dependence on overland access routes to South East Asia. So India’s “Act East” policy MUST therefore go through Bangladesh from west to east. We should not provide this corridor/transit without corresponding corridors north south to Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim and Himachal onwards to China. These corridors should only be for civilian transport trans-shipment and not transit. There can be no circumstances that would justify cross border military trans-shipment or military protection of shipments beyond one country’s own border. Each country should provide security within its borders but joint customs checking should be done at borders. It is only through this reciprocity that the infrastructure expense and traffic hassle associated with cross border transit/trans-shipment make sense.
Above arguments show that a factual assessment of India- Bangladesh relationship as it has evolved now, in the back drop of an emerging multipolar new world order and a growing presence of the Chinese Dragon in the neighborhood, shows it is hardly as one sided as it is made to appear. With a truly Nationalistic leadership and skilled diplomats we have quite a good hand to play vis a vis our much larger neighbor to protect and enhance our core interests. However, to maintain our strategic independence and pursue such a foreign policy the most cost effective security doctrine for us will either be through a mutual defense treaty with a faraway great power such as China (As the so called ” Muslim NATO” is still nascent), United States or rely on an highly sophisticated ” asymmetric warfare” strategy that allows us to inflict unacceptable damage to any enemy even if we can’t win a war outright. Indigenous military production capacity to build and customize weapons that are ideal for implementing our own security doctrine is advisable. Our eastern border competitor Myanmar has made good strides in this regard. We must not be left behind. That along with a good compulsory military service similar to Singapore is enough to ensure sufficient deterrence against any adventure.
© SYED SHADMAN RAHIM
