Myanmar’s ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas was pre-meditated and executed with military precision. I will not go ad nauseum into the long historical context as it has been covered extensively elsewhere. But the facts are that they mobilized three divisions in Rakhine province, one lightly mechanized ( like a Russian motor rifle division) and two infantry divisions. They are amply backed by artillery, airpower and air mobility ( helicopters). Initially a false flag operation by a nearly non-nonexistent ( as in weak) ” ARSA” was staged with mercenaries. Once the casus belli was provided, the pre-positioned forces went into action. Village after village was burned and their inhabitants, the Rohingyas, corralled into a ‘kill zone’ towards Bangladesh border. They are being targeted based on religious differences and ethnic makeup. Amidst this ethnic cleansing, they really had one way to go without being killed if they survived the initial onslaught or the subsequent rape, pillage and killings. Systematic destruction of evidence of the genocide, by burning bodies beyond recognition, sea burial and mass graves went along with the operation as planned with military precision. Now that we have established the culpability of the Burmese armed forces, Tatmadaw in this genocide and its pre-meditated nature, it raises several question about our own state.
Q. Do we actually have a foreign policy?
A. In effect, No.
Q Do we actually have a National Security Strategy?
A. No
Q. Do we have a Burma policy? Do we have sufficient Burma experts to help develop it?
A. No
Q. Did we receive any credible intelligence of these significant military movements and the political resolve preceding it? After all, this was no rogue operation but backed by the full force of the Burmese state?
A. If we did receive the correct intel, who is responsible for acting on it and why did they refuse to act to protect our borders and initiate a diplomatic offensive to pre-empt the Burmese operation? Does it not amount to criminal incompetence bordering on treason? On the other hand if we did not receive timely intelligence, then it is the greatest intelligence failure in our national history. Who bears responsibility?
Q. Did we take the right military steps to stop or slow the ethnic cleansing and concomitant flow of refugees into our country?
A. No. If not, why not?
Fundamental matter to understand about the Rohingya crisis is that it is part of an unfolding Myanmar crisis which may be used to spawn a regional crisis if not a “civilizational” clash. In that sense it is a “riddle, wrapped in a mystery inside and enigma”. So let us try to throw some light on this rather complex crisis.
The World is moving towards a post Anglo-American Multi-polar world order. Naturally the stalwarts of the existing order would like to delay, if not prevent, such an eventuality. Eurasian landmass in general and Asia- Pacific in particular is the primary theater of this tectonic shift of global power. As such United States and its allies have devised a strategy of containment called “Pivot to Asia” as well as initiating selective “hybrid warfare”. This novel form of warfare involves instigating identity politics based conflict at subnational level that generates centrifugal tendencies within existing borders of targeted nation states, arming of multiple parties involved and eventually effective demise of the unitary state into balkanized zones to allow for colonization and extraction of resources. This has been used multiple times in recent decades and perfected as an art, for example in Iraq, Libya, Syria, South Sudan, East Timor, Ukraine and above all in the Balkans ( Kosovo, Bosnia). A similar operation is very much in effect in Myanmar where recent advances by opposition militias against Burmese army has been astonishing to say the least (even in the context of a multi-decade civil war). Better training, strategy, and weapons are visible amongst the opposition forces. Anglo American Empire is instigating the existing ethnic and religious fissures in Myanmar. Of all the ethnic conflicts in Myanmar, the Rohingya conflict is chosen because it has the highest “positive externality” from the perspective of the empire. There is a powerful Eurasian unity emerging between China, Russia, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan amongst others. Chinese influence on ASEAN countries have also raised unabated. Rohingya conflict can kill many birds with one stone:
1. Create a Buddhist-Islam “clash of civilizations” to estrange China from Muslim countries in Asean and elsewhere.
2. Forcing China to choose between Myanmar and Bangladesh, thus creating a space for the empire and its regional proxies (India) to back the opponent.
3. Disrupt China’s Oil, Gas pipeline and emerging road-rail network from Kyakphaw deep sea port to Kunming.
4. Destabilize Bangladesh, Northeast India and Balkanize Burma. Long term, one of the objective will be to build a “Christian state” ala East Timor, South Sudan in chin state of Myanmar, CHT and several north eastern Indians states.
End result will be an “Arc of instability” stretching from Bangladesh through Myanmar and Indian North East up to the Chinese border. This will allow the Empire a strategic and military re-entry into South East Asia region and close to China’s Southern border. It will complete the encirclement of China with military bases on all sides.
It is, therefore, important that we understand beyond the near term humanitarian aspects of the Rohingya crisis. This is a pre-cursor for a much larger Geo-political conflict in which we are but a mere pawn (so are Myanmar and Rohingya). There is a narrow window for peaceful settlement still possible under Chinese mediation as they have the most to lose in the above scenario strategically. But we must prepare for the eventuality that the Chinese initiative may fail due to Burmese intransigence. After all, Burmese Junta is not known to be pro-Chinese, especially in the current context of official neutrality adhered by the Chinese in their civil war (while supplying both sides with arms and ammunition). In such a scenario war is likely, if not inevitable With Myanmar. Best way to make it less likely is to prepare for it by clever military diplomacy by forming a “Coalition of the Willing”. As Sun Tzu said “The wise enter battle after they have won the war, the foolish enter battle looking how to win”.